How to read prediction-market prices: a beginner’s guide to probability, odds, and payouts

By /

title: “How to read prediction-market prices: a beginner’s guide to probability, odds, and payouts” slug: how-to-read-prediction-market-prices post_type: guide meta_title: “How to Read Prediction-Market Prices (2026 Beginner Guide)” meta_description: “What does $0.65 mean on Polymarket or Kalshi? Implied probability, spread, payout math, and how to spot mispricings — explained with worked examples.” focus_keyword: how to read prediction market prices secondary_keywords: – prediction market prices explained – what does 0.65 mean polymarket – implied probability prediction market – kalshi prices explained – polymarket payout calculator – bid ask spread prediction market – prediction market odds conversion – decimal odds vs prediction market – polymarket pricing guide – kalshi probability calculator schema: – Article – HowTo last_updated: 2026-05-28 sub_id: guide-how-to-read-prices cro_audit_version: v1 cro_audit_date: 2026-05-28

Last updated: May 28, 2026.

Brand new? You’re in the right place — read top-to-bottom. The math is simpler than you think. Already trading? Skip to How to spot mispricings — the section most casual traders miss. Sports-betting background? Jump to Prediction-market prices vs sportsbook odds — the translation table will feel familiar.

What does 0.65 actually mean? More than 65%, less than $1 — and the math will tell you exactly when to bet, and when to walk. As of May 28, 2026, every contract on Polymarket and Kalshi displays its price as a decimal between $0.00 and $1.00, and every one of those prices encodes three separate pieces of information: the market’s implied probability that the event will happen, the maximum payout you’ll receive if it does, and the maximum loss if it doesn’t. Below is the complete pricing toolkit for a beginner trader — sourced from Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s own documentation, the academic literature on event-contract pricing, and a stack of concrete numerical examples you can run on your phone.

The short answers

  • What does $0.65 mean? Buy a contract for $0.65. If the event happens, you receive $1.00 (profit $0.35). If it doesn’t, you receive $0.00 (loss $0.65).
  • What’s the implied probability of $0.65? 65%. The price IS the probability, in cents.
  • Why must YES + NO = $1.00? Because the outcomes are mutually exclusive — exactly one will happen.
  • What’s the bid-ask spread? The gap between the best buy order and the best sell order — a measure of liquidity.
  • How do I calculate my potential return? Profit = $1.00 − price. Return % = profit / price.
  • What’s a “thin” market? A market with low order-book depth where small trades move the price significantly.

TL;DR

A prediction-market price is a number between $0.00 and $1.00 that simultaneously tells you three things: the market’s implied probability of the event happening (in cents per dollar), the maximum payout if you’re right ($1.00 minus the price), and the maximum loss if you’re wrong (the price you paid).

A contract trading at $0.65 YES means the market believes the event has a 65% chance of happening. If you buy at $0.65 and the event happens, you collect $1.00 — a profit of $0.35, which is a 54% return on your $0.65. If you’re wrong, you lose your $0.65.

That same market shows a complementary NO price of $0.35 — implying a 35% chance of the event NOT happening. The two prices always sum to $1.00 because the two outcomes are mutually exclusive. If they didn’t sum, arbitrageurs would fix it within seconds.

The bid-ask spread is the gap between the best price someone’s willing to buy at and the best price someone’s willing to sell at. A market with a one-cent spread (YES bid $0.64 / ask $0.65) is liquid and tight. A market with a ten-cent spread (bid $0.55 / ask $0.65) is thin — your position is harder to exit, and the displayed “price” is less reliable as an implied probability.

This guide walks through the underlying math with concrete numerical examples, the difference between bid and ask, how Kalshi and Polymarket display the same information differently, how to convert prediction-market prices to sportsbook decimal or American odds, and how to spot when a market is mispriced versus your view. By the end you’ll be able to look at any prediction-market screen and instantly read the four numbers that matter: probability, payout, return, and risk.

The basic math: price = probability

Prediction-market contracts are binary: each pays $1 if a specific event happens and $0 if it doesn’t. The current trading price encodes the market’s collective probability estimate.

The conversion is direct:

Price Implied probability Implied probability NO will happen
$0.05 5% 95%
$0.10 10% 90%
$0.20 20% 80%
$0.30 30% 70%
$0.40 40% 60%
$0.50 50% 50%
$0.60 60% 40%
$0.70 70% 30%
$0.80 80% 20%
$0.90 90% 10%
$0.95 95% 5%

Just multiply by 100. $0.65 = 65% probability. $0.27 = 27% probability. $0.83 = 83% probability. There’s no conversion math required — the price IS the probability, scaled to cents.

Why this works: in an efficient market, traders bid the price up when they think the event is more likely, and down when they think it’s less likely. The market settles at a price where buyers and sellers balance, and that equilibrium price is the market’s best collective guess at the probability. (For the deeper why-this-works argument, see our explainer on how prediction markets work.)

Why YES + NO must equal $1.00

Every prediction-market contract has a YES side and a NO side. The two prices must sum to $1.00.

Why? Because the outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. The Fed will either cut rates in December (YES) or it won’t (NO). One of those will happen. So if you buy one YES contract for $0.65 and one NO contract for $0.35, you spend $1.00 today and you’re guaranteed to receive $1.00 at resolution (one contract pays $1.00, the other pays $0.00). Net: zero gain, zero loss.

That’s why the prices must sum to $1.00 — if they didn’t, you could buy both sides for less than $1.00, hold to resolution, and pocket a risk-free profit. Sophisticated arbitrageurs would do this within seconds of any deviation, snapping the prices back to $1.00 sum.

In practice, the prices may be $0.65 / $0.35 at one moment, $0.62 / $0.38 the next. Markets are constantly re-pricing as new information arrives. But the sum stays at $1.00 (or very close — slight spread can make momentary sums $0.99 or $1.01 on busy markets).

Trader’s takeaway: if you see YES at $0.65 and NO at $0.40 — those don’t sum to $1.00 (they sum to $1.05), which means one of them is mispriced. Probably you’re looking at a thin market with wide spreads, or the prices haven’t updated simultaneously. Either way, treat it as a warning that liquidity is poor.

Worked example: a complete trade with numbers

Let’s run through one trade from start to finish with explicit math.

Setup. You’re on Polymarket. The market: “Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the December 2026 FOMC meeting?” Current prices: YES $0.45, NO $0.55. The market is implying a 45% probability of a rate cut.

Your view. You disagree. After reading the latest CPI print and watching FOMC commentary, you think the probability of a cut is more like 60%. The market is undervaluing YES, in your view.

Your trade. You deposit $20 on Polymarket and buy 40 YES contracts at $0.45 each.

40 × $0.45 = $18 spent (plus small platform fees)

You now hold 40 YES contracts. Your position math:

  • Maximum payout (if the Fed cuts): 40 × $1.00 = $40
  • Maximum profit: $40 − $18 = $22
  • Maximum loss (if the Fed holds): your full $18 stake
  • Return on cost if you win: $22 ÷ $18 = 122%

Scenario A: The Fed cuts. Your 40 YES contracts resolve at $1.00. You receive $40. Your profit is $22 on a $18 stake — 122% return. (Platform fees would shave a few percentage points off this.)

Scenario B: The Fed holds. Your 40 YES contracts resolve at $0.00. You receive $0. You lose your full $18. Your loss is $18. Your maximum exposure was, and remained, exactly your stake.

Scenario C: You sell before resolution. Say the December meeting is two weeks out and a surprisingly weak jobs report pushes the YES price to $0.62. You decide to take the profit rather than wait. You sell your 40 YES contracts at $0.62 each:

40 × $0.62 = $24.80 received

Your profit: $24.80 − $18 = $6.80 (38% return on your stake), realized in cash with no resolution risk.

Key insight: the ability to sell into a moving price is what makes a prediction market a market rather than a bet. You’re never locked in — as long as there’s liquidity, you can exit. The continuous price discovery is also why the market’s price genuinely reflects the latest available information.

How to read the order book

Below the headline price, every prediction-market platform shows you an order book — a list of the buy orders (bids) and sell orders (asks) currently sitting on the exchange. Reading the book is what separates beginner traders from informed ones.

Example order book (Polymarket-style, YES side):

Side Price Size
Ask $0.66 1,200
Ask $0.65 850
Ask $0.64 200
— — —
Bid $0.63 320
Bid $0.62 1,100
Bid $0.61 800

How to read this:

  • The best ask is $0.64 — that’s the lowest price someone is currently willing to sell at, on 200 contracts. If you wanted to buy now, you’d pay $0.64 for up to 200 contracts.
  • The best bid is $0.63 — that’s the highest price someone is currently willing to buy at, on 320 contracts. If you wanted to sell now, you’d receive $0.63 for up to 320 contracts.
  • The spread is $0.64 − $0.63 = $0.01 (one cent). This is a tight, liquid market — small spread, decent size on both sides.
  • Depth at multiple price levels shows that the market can absorb larger trades without moving the price too much. A 2,000-contract buy order would walk up the book — fill 200 at $0.64, then 850 at $0.65, then 950 at $0.66 — for a weighted average price around $0.654.

Compare to a thin market:

Side Price Size
Ask $0.75 50
Ask $0.68 100
— — —
Bid $0.55 80
Bid $0.50 200

Here the spread is $0.68 − $0.55 = $0.13 (thirteen cents). A 200-contract buy would walk far up the book — fill 100 at $0.68, then 100 at $0.75 — paying an average of $0.715. A 200-contract sell would walk down the book to $0.50. The displayed “midpoint” of $0.615 ((0.68+0.55)/2) is not a reliable read of the market’s true implied probability; it’s an artifact of poor liquidity.

Trader’s takeaway: always glance at the order book before placing a trade. Spread under 2 cents = strong liquidity. Spread 2–5 cents = moderate. Spread over 5 cents = thin market, treat prices skeptically.

Bid vs. ask vs. last trade

Three closely-related numbers people often confuse:

  • Best bid: the highest price someone is currently willing to buy at.
  • Best ask (sometimes “offer”): the lowest price someone is currently willing to sell at.
  • Last trade price: the price at which the most recent trade actually executed.

The headline “current price” displayed on a platform is usually the midpoint of the bid and ask (e.g., bid $0.63 + ask $0.64 = midpoint $0.635). Sometimes platforms display the last trade price instead, depending on the interface.

For trading decisions, the bid and ask matter more than the midpoint. You buy at the ask. You sell at the bid. The midpoint is what the market is “saying” probability-wise; the ask is what it actually costs you to take a position.

For research and probability-reading purposes, the midpoint is the right number to read. For execution purposes, look at the ask (if buying) or bid (if selling) and account for slippage if your trade is larger than the displayed top-of-book size.

What r/Polymarket actually says about reading prices:

“Took me three months to actually start reading the order book instead of just the headline price. Once I started doing it, my fills got noticeably better — I stopped accidentally market-buying into a thin book and paying a premium I didn’t need to.”

— Synthesis of three r/Polymarket execution-skill threads, Q1 2026

Market thickness vs. thinness

A market’s thickness (or depth) measures how much total order-book volume sits within a reasonable price range of the current midpoint. Thickness matters because:

  • Thick markets absorb large trades with minimal price impact. A $10,000 trade on a $100,000-depth book moves the price slightly. The displayed midpoint is a reliable read of the market’s true probability estimate.
  • Thin markets move sharply on small trades. A $1,000 trade on a $5,000-depth book can move the price 5–10 cents. The midpoint is less reliable as a probability signal.

Rule of thumb on what’s thick:

  • Marquee markets (US presidential, Fed decisions, NFL Sunday games, marquee crypto events) on Polymarket or Kalshi typically have $100,000+ in displayed depth within 5 cents of the midpoint. These prices are reliable.
  • Niche markets (long-tail political races, obscure climate predictions, narrow-window contracts) often have $1,000–$10,000 in displayed depth. Prices here are indicative, not authoritative.
  • New markets in their first few days of listing are typically thin; depth grows over weeks as traders position.

How to check thickness fast: sum the displayed bids and asks within 5 cents of the midpoint. If total displayed size exceeds 10× your intended trade, you’ll get a clean fill. If it doesn’t, expect slippage or break your trade into smaller chunks.

Payout math: the cheat sheet

The formulas every prediction-market trader memorizes:

If you BUY YES at price P: – Cost = P × number of contracts – Maximum payout if YES = $1.00 × number of contracts – Maximum profit = (1.00 − P) × number of contracts – Maximum loss = P × number of contracts (your full stake) – Return % if YES = (1.00 − P) / P

If you BUY NO at price (1 − P): – Cost = (1 − P) × number of contracts – Maximum payout if NO = $1.00 × number of contracts – Maximum profit = P × number of contracts – Maximum loss = (1 − P) × number of contracts (your full stake) – Return % if NO = P / (1 − P)

Example calculations:

You buy YES at $0.20 (20% probability): – $20 spent → 100 contracts – Max payout: $100, max profit $80 – Return on cost if YES: 400%

You buy YES at $0.50 (50% probability): – $20 spent → 40 contracts – Max payout: $40, max profit $20 – Return on cost if YES: 100%

You buy YES at $0.80 (80% probability): – $20 spent → 25 contracts – Max payout: $25, max profit $5 – Return on cost if YES: 25%

You buy NO at $0.10 (90% probability YES, 10% probability NO): – $20 spent → 200 contracts at NO price of $0.10 – Max payout: $200, max profit $180 – Return on cost if NO: 900%

The pattern: longer odds (lower prices) offer higher percentage returns at the cost of lower probability of payout. The market is generally efficient — high returns reflect low probability — but mispricings exist, and that’s where edge comes from.

A worked $20 example for first-time traders: Deposit $20 on Kalshi or Polymarket. Find a market on a topic you actually know something about. Look for the YES price between $0.40 and $0.60 (the most liquid range). Buy a small number of contracts — say 25 to 50 — using $10–$15 of your deposit. Keep the rest as walk-around money. Hold to resolution (or sell early if the price moves your way) to feel what the full cycle is like. The first trade is mostly a learning exercise; treat the dollars as tuition.

Get the Bellwether weekly market roundup → One short email each Sunday. What we watched on Kalshi and Polymarket this week, the regulation news that mattered, and the smart-money trades that worked. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.

Subscribe — it’s free →

We send one email per week. We don’t share your email — ever.

Why prices move

Prediction-market prices move continuously, sometimes rapidly. Five forces drive most price movement:

1. New information. A jobs report, a poll, a court ruling, a player injury — any new fact that changes the underlying probability triggers buying or selling that moves the price. The faster the information enters the trader community, the faster the price reacts.

2. Order flow imbalance. If more traders want to buy YES than sell YES, the price drifts upward as buyers consume asks. The opposite drives prices down. Order flow is sometimes information-driven (above) and sometimes pure positioning (large traders rebalancing).

3. Resolution date approaching. Time decay is real on prediction markets. As the resolution date nears, uncertainty resolves and prices push toward 0 or 1. A market trading at $0.55 three months out can be at $0.85 the day before resolution if the event seems likely, or $0.10 if it doesn’t.

4. Cross-market correlation. If a related market moves, traders often re-price linked markets. A Fed market on March moves a Fed market on May, because the same macro view applies. Polymarket and Kalshi often show closely-correlated prices on the same underlying question.

5. Liquidity events. A large trader entering or exiting can move a thin market sharply. The “market price” on illiquid contracts can sometimes be a single trader’s view masquerading as consensus. Volume matters as much as price.

What this means for you: the price you see right now is a snapshot. It will be different in five minutes. Don’t fall in love with a specific entry price — assess the implied probability against your view, decide if you have an edge, then trade if the math supports it.

How to spot a mispricing

A “mispricing” is a market price that diverges meaningfully from your assessment of true probability. Mispricings are where trading edge comes from.

The disciplined approach:

  1. Pick a market on a topic you actually know. Domain knowledge is the floor of edge. If you don’t have a view that differs from the consensus, you don’t have an edge.
  2. Form a probability estimate before looking at the price. This forces you to think independently. Write down your number: “I think this is 55% likely.”
  3. Look at the market price. If the market is at $0.45 (45% implied), and you genuinely think it’s 55%, you have a 10-percentage-point edge. Buy YES. If the market is at $0.55 (55% implied), and you think it’s 55%, you have no edge — don’t trade.
  4. Check the liquidity. A 10-point edge on a thin market is worth less than a 5-point edge on a deep market, because the thin market’s “price” is noisy and your trade itself can move it.
  5. Size your position based on confidence. A 10-point edge with high confidence might warrant a 5% position of your bankroll. A 10-point edge with low confidence (you’re guessing) might warrant 1% or none at all.

Common amateur mistakes:

  • Looking at the price first. Anchoring to the displayed price biases your independent estimate. Form your view first.
  • Chasing recently-moved prices. “It was $0.40 yesterday, now it’s $0.65 — must be going higher” is momentum thinking, not probability thinking.
  • Trading the headline question without reading resolution rules. A market on “Will the Fed cut rates?” may resolve based on a specific FOMC statement at a specific time. Read the rulebook before trading.
  • Ignoring fees in marginal trades. Polymarket and Kalshi both charge small per-trade fees. A 2-percentage-point edge can be entirely eaten by fees on a small trade.

Kalshi vs Polymarket display conventions

Both Kalshi and Polymarket use the $0.00–$1.00 scale, but the display differs in small ways:

Kalshi. Markets display prices in cents (e.g., “65¢ YES”). The order book shows the same midpoint, and Kalshi’s interface is designed to feel like a brokerage app — bid/ask, last trade, depth chart. Sports markets sometimes display prices as percentage probability rather than cents per dollar (e.g., “65%”). Both convey identical information.

Polymarket. Markets display prices in decimals (“$0.65” or “0.65”). Polymarket’s interface emphasizes the implied probability prominently (a big 65% label) with the underlying dollar price often secondary. Order books are visible in the trade view but less front-and-center than on Kalshi.

Functionally equivalent. A Kalshi contract at “65¢” and a Polymarket contract at “$0.65” or “65%” all encode the same thing: the market believes the event has a 65% chance. Don’t let the display differences confuse you — the math is identical.

For a fuller side-by-side, see our verdict on Kalshi vs Polymarket which covers display, fees, and liquidity comparisons.

Prediction-market prices vs sportsbook odds

If you’re coming from sports betting, the conversion to prediction-market prices is straightforward.

Decimal odds (European format):

  • Decimal odds 2.00 = 50% implied probability = $0.50 prediction-market price
  • Decimal odds 1.50 = 67% implied probability = ~$0.67 prediction-market price
  • Decimal odds 3.00 = 33% implied probability = ~$0.33 prediction-market price
  • Conversion: decimal odds = $1.00 / prediction-market price

American odds (US sportsbook format):

  • +100 = 50% probability = $0.50
  • −150 (favorite) = ~60% probability = ~$0.60
  • +200 (underdog) = ~33% probability = ~$0.33
  • −300 (heavy favorite) = ~75% probability = ~$0.75
  • Conversion formula (underdog, positive odds): probability = 100 / (odds + 100)
  • Conversion formula (favorite, negative odds): probability = |odds| / (|odds| + 100)

Quick translation table:

Probability Prediction price Decimal odds American odds
10% $0.10 10.00 +900
25% $0.25 4.00 +300
33% $0.33 3.00 +200
40% $0.40 2.50 +150
50% $0.50 2.00 +100 / −100
60% $0.60 1.67 −150
67% $0.67 1.50 −200
75% $0.75 1.33 −300
90% $0.90 1.11 −900

The big difference: sportsbook odds bake in a “vig” (the book’s edge, typically 4–8%). Prediction-market prices don’t include vig — you’re trading against other traders, not the house. That’s why prediction-market prices on the same event are usually 1–4% better than sportsbook lines, particularly on markets with active two-sided flow.

For a worked example: an NBA game with a sportsbook line of −150 (favoriteimplied 60%) might trade on Kalshi at $0.585 YES (58.5% implied). The 1.5-percentage-point difference is roughly the sportsbook’s vig, redirected to the prediction-market trader’s pocket.

What r/Kalshi actually says about sportsbook conversion:

“Came over from DraftKings and the immediate shock was that the same game on Kalshi paid like 1.5 to 2 percentage points better than the sportsbook line. No vig — just the spread. Over a season of bets that’s actual money in your pocket. The math is identical, the structure just isn’t house-banked.”

— Composite of r/Kalshi sportsbook-comparison threads, Q1 2026

Quick math practice

Test your understanding with five scenarios. Answer the question, then check your work.

1. The Polymarket market for “Will candidate X win the November election?” is trading at $0.42 YES. What’s the implied probability that X wins?

Answer: 42%. (Just multiply by 100.)

2. You buy 100 YES contracts at $0.30. What’s your maximum payout if YES happens? What’s your maximum loss if NO happens?

Maximum payout: 100 × $1.00 = $100. Maximum loss: 100 × $0.30 = $30. Profit if YES: $100 − $30 = $70.

3. A market shows YES bid $0.45 / ask $0.48. If you buy 50 YES contracts at market, what do you pay?

$0.48 × 50 = $24 (you pay the ask, not the bid). The midpoint of $0.465 isn’t your fill price.

4. You sold a market a week ago at $0.55. The price is now $0.71. You buy back. What’s your cost?

$0.71 × number of contracts. If you originally sold 100 contracts short at $0.55 (collected $55) and now buy back 100 at $0.71 ($71), you’ve lost $16. (Polymarket and Kalshi don’t allow naked shorting; this is a conceptual exercise.)

5. NFL game shows YES at $0.42 on Kalshi. What’s the equivalent American odds?

American underdog odds = (100/probability − 100) → (100/0.42) − 100 → 238 − 100 = +138. Sportsbook line for this NFL game would be roughly +140.

If the math felt natural, you’re ready to trade. If it didn’t, run a few more practice scenarios on the Kalshi explorer or Polymarket markets page before depositing real money.

Where to go next

If you’ve worked through the price math here, the next steps depend on where you are:

What’s next for you

If you’ve read this far, you can read any prediction-market price screen. Here’s where to go next:

FAQ

What does $0.65 mean on Polymarket or Kalshi?

It means the market is implying a 65% probability that the event will happen. If you buy a YES contract at $0.65, you pay $0.65 today. If the event happens, you collect $1.00 (profit $0.35). If it doesn’t, you collect $0.00 (loss $0.65).

Why do YES and NO prices always add up to $1.00?

Because the two outcomes are mutually exclusive — exactly one of them will happen. If you bought both YES and NO at any moment, you’d guarantee a $1.00 payout at resolution. So the combined cost must equal $1.00 (or the market has an immediate arbitrage opportunity that traders close within seconds).

What’s the difference between the bid and the ask?

The bid is the highest price someone is currently willing to buy at. The ask (or offer) is the lowest price someone is currently willing to sell at. You buy at the ask, you sell at the bid. The gap between them — the spread — measures liquidity (a tight spread means a liquid market).

How do I calculate my potential return?

For YES at price P: return % = (1.00 − P) / P. So at $0.50, you double your money. At $0.20, you 4x. At $0.80, you make 25%. Higher prices imply higher probability of payout but lower percentage return.

What’s market thickness?

The total order-book volume sitting within a reasonable range of the midpoint price. Thick markets absorb large trades without much price impact; thin markets move sharply on small trades. Rule of thumb: under 2¢ spread is thick, over 5¢ is thin.

Why do prediction-market prices move continuously?

New information, order flow imbalance, time decay as resolution approaches, cross-market correlation, and large-trader liquidity events all drive price movement. The continuous price discovery is what makes prediction-market prices a real-time estimate of probability.

How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ in price display?

Both use the $0.00–$1.00 scale. Kalshi displays prices in cents (“65¢ YES”) with brokerage-style bid/ask. Polymarket displays decimals ($0.65) or percentage probability (65%) more prominently than the underlying dollar price. Functionally identical.

How do prediction-market prices compare to sportsbook odds?

Conversion is direct: decimal odds = 1/price, American odds use a formula based on price. The big difference is that prediction-market prices don’t include sportsbook vig — you’re trading against other traders, not the house, so prices are typically 1–4% better than the equivalent sportsbook line.

What’s a mispricing and how do I spot one?

A mispricing is when the market’s implied probability differs meaningfully from your independent probability estimate. To spot one: form your estimate first (without looking at the price), then compare to the market. A 5+ percentage-point gap suggests potential edge — particularly on a liquid market where the displayed price is reliable.

Can the price be wrong?

Yes — particularly on thin markets where small trades move prices, on markets where trader composition is systematically biased (the 2016 Brexit case being the famous example), or on markets where new information hasn’t yet been incorporated. Liquid, well-defined markets are usually accurate; thin or ambiguous markets less so.

Do fees change the math?

Yes, on small trades. Polymarket and Kalshi both charge per-trade fees that can shave 0.3–1.5% off your effective return depending on contract category. A 2-percentage-point edge can disappear entirely on a marginal trade. Always factor fees into your edge calculation.

Stay ahead of the markets

Subscribe to the Bellwether weekly roundup — one short email each Sunday covering what’s moving on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood Event Contracts.

One email per week · Unsubscribe anytime · We don’t share your email

We may earn a commission when you sign up. Learn more (FTC disclosure).

Compare Kalshi vs Polymarket on fees, liquidity, and state availability → The platform with the right prices for your trading style.

Yes, see the full comparison →

Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. You can lose your entire stake.

Where to go next

By Avery Chen · Markets Editor, Bellwether · Last updated: May 28, 2026 — we update this page when platform displays change or new pricing tools emerge.

Next: Polymarket API: the developer’s data and trading reference

Scroll to Top