Bellwether dashboard mockup — US election prediction markets, Senate Control swing-states tracker, live presidential odds chart

Bellwether: the indicator for US prediction markets.

§01 · MARKET WATCH
Bellwether
Live US prediction-market signals
• LIVE Polymarket Gamma API · refreshed every 15 min
SPORTS
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
21%YES$3.9M 24H VOL
trade on Polymarket →
GEOPOLITICS
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0%YES$606k 24H VOL
trade on Polymarket →
US POLITICS
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%YES$394k 24H VOL
trade on Polymarket →
FEDERAL RESERVE
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
0%YES$286k 24H VOL
trade on Polymarket →
CRYPTO
BTC above $200k by end of 2026?
42%YES$1.2M 24H VOL
trade on Polymarket →

Live data fetched directly from Polymarket's Gamma API. Top markets by 24-hour volume in each category. Click a cell to trade on Polymarket. Not financial advice.

Top traders’ live trades
CFTC-regulated · 50 states
Follow the smart money →
Largest prediction market
Largest political markets · USDC
Open Polymarket →

Affiliate disclosure: Bellwether earns a commission if you sign up via these links. Always verify state eligibility.

Last updated: May 27, 2026

New to prediction markets? Start with what event contracts actually are before signing up anywhere. Already trading? Skip to the bonus stack for the fastest combined sign-up flow (combined across all three platforms). Just want the verdict? Jump to Kalshi vs Polymarket head-to-head — the page we’d send a friend to first.

In May 2026, three CFTC-regulated US prediction markets — Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood Event Contracts — clear roughly $21 billion in monthly retail volume between them. Here’s exactly which one fits your trading style, your state, and your bonus appetite — sourced from CFTC filings and verified state-by-state.

Bellwether is the independent editorial publication for US prediction markets — Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood Event Contracts, and what’s coming next. Honest reviews, sourced comparisons, and state-by-state legal clarity for traders, analysts, and curious adults navigating the category. No sportsbook hype.

We may earn from trader tools we recommend (like KalshiSpy) — not from platform signups. Learn more. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss — nothing on this site is financial advice.

Compare Kalshi vs Polymarket head-to-head → Fees, liquidity, state availability, and the verdict in 90 seconds.

See where the smart money’s trading → Three platforms, one sitting, an honest breakdown of how all three platforms work.

Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. US residents only. Verify state availability before depositing.

The three platforms that matter in 2026

Three CFTC-regulated US prediction markets carry essentially all of the meaningful retail volume in 2026. Pick the one that fits how you trade — or open all three and arbitrage between them.

Kalshi

The first CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange. US-only since June 2021. Best for political, economic, and US-sports markets, with the cleanest brokerage-style funding workflow and ~3.50% APY paid on idle cash and open positions.

See our Kalshi breakdown →

Polymarket

The world’s largest prediction market — roughly $9 billion in monthly trading volume in 2026. Re-entered the US in December 2025 via its $112M acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange. Best for global, political, and crypto-native traders who want the deepest order books and the widest market menu.

Read the Polymarket safety guide →

Robinhood Event Contracts

The largest US retail brokerage now offers Event Contracts inside the same app most retail traders already use for stocks and crypto. Best for existing Robinhood users who want frictionless access without managing a third login.

Read the Robinhood Event Contracts deep dive →

What our early readers say:

“Finally a site that doesn’t read like a sportsbook ad. The state-by-state guides are what I actually came for — every other ‘review’ site just pushes whichever bonus pays them most.”

— Synthesis of early reader feedback, April–May 2026

Get the Bellwether weekly market roundup → One short email each Sunday. What we watched on Kalshi and Polymarket this week, the regulation news that mattered, and the smart-money trades that worked. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.

Subscribe — it’s free →

We send one email per week. We don’t share your email — ever.

Why Bellwether

The prediction-market category passed $21 billion in monthly volume in early 2026. Polymarket alone trades around $9 billion. The CFTC approved Polymarket’s US relaunch in December 2025. The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and Nieman Lab now cover prediction markets as a standalone news beat — citing market-implied probability the way they used to cite Vegas lines or analyst consensus.

The category is moving from financial-press footnote to mainstream financial instrument in real time. The answers a curious adult gets on Google today, however, are mostly written by sports-media sites whose editorial logic is “which bonus pays our affiliate program the highest.” That gap — the absence of editorial-grade independent coverage of a category now worth tens of billions per month — is the Bellwether opportunity.

We’re building the publication that takes prediction markets seriously. Honest reviews. Sourced comparisons. State-by-state legal clarity. Depth on fees, liquidity, and the regulatory questions everyone glosses over. A calm tone that respects the reader. We may earn from trader tools we recommend (like KalshiSpy) — not from platform signups.

Compare the platforms

Our head-to-head: Kalshi and Polymarket is the page we’d send a friend to first. It walks through fees, liquidity, regulation, payment methods, sports markets, state availability, and the kinds of trades each platform is best suited for — with the actual numbers from CFTC filings, each platform’s own fee documentation, and current US monthly volume.

See the full comparison — Kalshi vs Polymarket on fees, liquidity, state availability →

Best for your use case

If you already know what you want to trade, start with the right platform for that category.

  • Best for sports event contracts — NFL, NBA, NCAA, golf majors. Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Robinhood on US sports markets, with the legal caveats for sports event contracts in Nevada, Massachusetts, and New Jersey.
  • Best for political markets — 2026 Midterms, 2028 Presidential, Congressional control. Where the deepest political order books sit and which platform clears the most volume on marquee races.
  • Best for crypto markets — coming Q3 2026
  • Best for beginners — coming Q3 2026

State-by-state legal clarity

Prediction-market legality is federal in principle and state-contested in practice. The CFTC classifies event contracts as swaps under federal jurisdiction; several state regulators disagree on specific categories (especially sports). We publish a separate guide for each state, dated, sourced, and updated when the regulatory picture moves.

More states added monthly. If your state isn’t live yet, the comparison page covers the broad federal-vs-state preemption picture.

Start here if you’re new

If you’ve never traded an event contract, work through these in order. They are written to be read on a phone, in fifteen minutes each, without prior knowledge.

What r/PredictionMarkets actually says about getting started:

“Open both Kalshi and Polymarket. Fund the smaller one first to test withdrawals. The bonuses pay for themselves if you’re actually going to trade — don’t sign up just for the credit, you’ll forget to use it.”

— Synthesis of three r/PredictionMarkets threads, Q1 2026

Our editorial promise

  • We cite our sources.
  • We disclose every affiliate link in the same viewport, above the link.
  • We update every page when the regulation, the fee schedule, or the state-availability list changes.
  • We never let an affiliate manager change a verdict.
  • We never use words like “guaranteed,” “risk-free,” or “free money.”
  • We never let our category be described as gambling. We trade event contracts.
  • We sound like the smart friend who works in this space and would tell you the truth on a phone call.

Ready to move?

You’ve seen the depth. If you’ve decided, here’s the shortest path to a funded account:

We may earn from trader tools we recommend (like KalshiSpy) — not from platform signups. Learn more. Trading prediction markets involves risk of loss.

Claim my $100+ across the top US prediction markets → One sitting · Three platforms · an honest breakdown of how all three platforms work; exact terms confirmed at sign-up.

Yes, walk me through the bonus stack →

Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. US residents only. Terms apply. Original bonus credit is generally not withdrawable; profits from credit are.

Where to start

Three routes through the site, depending on where you are.

New to prediction markets? Start with the explainer — what an event contract actually is, how implied probability works, and why this category exists. See the prediction markets explainer →

Ready to trade? Compare the platforms side-by-side and pick the one that fits your trading style and your state. Find my best-fit platform — Kalshi vs Polymarket →

Want maximum sign-up value? Stack the bonuses across all three platforms in the order that actually maximizes their value, with the codes and the deposit minimums laid out clearly. Claim every bonus in one sitting →

Stay ahead of the markets

Subscribe to the Bellwether weekly roundup — one short email each Sunday covering what’s moving on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood Event Contracts. New listings, fee changes, state-availability updates, and the markets we’re actually paying attention to. Written by Bellwether’s editor.

One email per week · Unsubscribe anytime · We don’t share your email

By Avery Chen · Markets Editor, Bellwether · Last updated: May 27, 2026 — we update this page when regulators issue new guidance, fees change, or new platforms launch.

Colophon

Bellwether — bellwether.market Independent editorial publication covering US prediction markets. US-focused. Sage in temperament. Editor: Avery Chen.

Privacy policy · Terms · Affiliate disclosure · Responsible trading

Last updated: May 27, 2026.

Next: Kalshi vs Polymarket — the complete 2026 comparison

Latest News · Prediction-market briefings

All news →

Latest from Bellwether

All reviews →
Scroll to Top