Affiliate disclosure
Every other page on Bellwether links here to explain how we are paid. We keep this page explicit on purpose. Many affiliate sites bury their disclosure in a footer, and Bellwether was set up to do the opposite.
Summary
Bellwether earns money from two referral programs:
- Polymarket. We earn a commission if you sign up through
/go/polymarket/. - KalshiSpy, an independent, paid third-party analytics tool for Kalshi traders. We earn a commission if you subscribe through
/go/kalshispy/. KalshiSpy is not Kalshi.
We earn nothing from Kalshi, Robinhood, FanDuel, DraftKings, Novig or OG. We are not operated by or affiliated with any of these companies. You pay nothing extra, and what we earn never changes which platforms or tools we recommend or how we cover them.
The full list of programs, the editorial firewall and our reasons are below.
Which links are affiliate links
Our outbound links run through /go/. Here is where each one goes, and which ones pay us:
/go/polymarket/→ Polymarket. Paid referral: we earn a commission if you sign up through this link./go/kalshispy/→ KalshiSpy, an independent paid analytics tool for Kalshi traders. Paid referral. It is not Kalshi./go/kalshi/→ kalshi.com. No commission./go/robinhood/,/go/fanduel-predicts/,/go/draftkings-predictions/,/go/novig/,/go/og/→ each platform's official site. No commission.
In articles and guides, affiliate links go through /go/, so you can see where a link goes by hovering over it. Two places link straight to a specific Polymarket market with our referral code attached: the live market cards on the homepage and the "Track this market" link at the end of a news story, which is labelled as an affiliate link. Both carry rel="sponsored". We do not hide affiliate tracking anywhere else. Two links earn us a referral: /go/polymarket/ and /go/kalshispy/. Every other /go/ link is a convenience link that earns us nothing, and it is marked rel="nofollow" rather than rel="sponsored".
The full list of partners
We currently earn a referral commission from two partners:
| Partner | What it is | How we're paid |
|---|---|---|
| KalshiSpy | Independent paid copy-trading and trader-analytics tool. It is not a prediction-market platform, and not Kalshi | Referral commission if you subscribe |
| Polymarket | A prediction-market platform we cover and link to | Referral commission if you sign up and trade via our link |
Polymarket links elsewhere on the site are paid referrals. Kalshi and Robinhood links are convenience links: they point to those companies' own sites, and we do not currently earn a commission from them.
That is the complete list as of the date at the top of this page. If we add a program, we will update this page within fourteen days. The same applies if we remove one.
You pay nothing extra
This is what most readers want to know, and the answer is no. The platform pays the commission out of its marketing budget, not you. The price, fee schedule, bonus and terms are the same whether you reach Polymarket through our /go/polymarket/ link or by typing polymarket.com into your browser.
If a referral link ever gets you a better offer than signing up directly, we say so on the relevant page.
The editorial firewall
The commission does not change how we cover a platform. We say so on every page that contains an affiliate link.
In practice:
- We publish critical analysis of platforms that pay us when the product warrants it. See, for example, the smart-contract, stablecoin and resolution risks set out in our Polymarket safety guide.
- We publish favorable analysis of platforms that pay us nothing. PredictIt is one: we link to it in our articles without a
/go/link because it has no affiliate program. - Editorial and commercial decisions are made and recorded separately. When they conflict, for example when a partner manager wants a softer review, the editorial decision is the one that ships.
- We will publicly reverse a verdict if the facts change. Our internal editorial standards require it: if a recommendation no longer gives a reader the best answer, we change it, even if that costs us money.
Put simply, the commission does not buy a verdict. Losing a commission costs us one line item. Losing readers' trust would end the business.
How we handle conflicts of interest
When a clear conflict of interest could shape coverage, we name it on the page concerned. Examples:
- A partner program offers us a one-off marketing bonus tied to a specific piece of coverage. We would refuse it. If such an offer had ever shaped our past coverage (none has), we would publish a correction.
- Someone writing for Bellwether holds a meaningful trading position on a platform we are reviewing. Writers avoid holding more than a small position in any platform under active review. If a position becomes meaningful, the piece discloses it.
- A partner asks for changes to a published review in exchange for continuing the partnership. We refuse and record the request.
If you believe a financial relationship we have not disclosed has shaped any coverage on Bellwether, email info@bellwether.market. We will investigate and publish a correction if one is warranted.
Disclosure on each page
Every Bellwether page with an affiliate link shows a disclosure at the top of the article, before the first link, not in a footer: "We earn a commission if you sign up for Polymarket or subscribe to KalshiSpy through our links. We earn nothing from Kalshi, Robinhood, FanDuel, DraftKings, Novig or OG." Buttons that lead to a partner also say whether we earn from that link.
Every platform is scored against the same published criteria; see how we rate.
Why we accept affiliate revenue at all
It is a fair question. We chose affiliate revenue over the alternatives because it leaves us free to write what we think.
The alternatives we considered:
- Paid placement in reviews and rankings. A platform pays to rank higher, which corrupts editorial judgment directly. Rejected. Sponsored pieces and newsletter slots, when we run them, are labelled as sponsored and never touch scores or rankings (see advertise).
- Ad networks. They fill pages with retargeting pixels, slow them down, pay poorly and do not suit our readers. Rejected. Any display placement we sell is direct, static and free of tracking.
- Venture funding for a "media business". Means chasing growth metrics and exit multiples instead of serving the reader, and eventually pressure to move into areas we don't believe in. Rejected.
- Reader subscriptions. A plausible long-term option, but premature for a young publication. Most readers have not yet built enough trust in us to pay, and we would rather earn that trust first.
- Affiliate commissions behind an explicit firewall. The platforms already spend money on acquiring users; this model puts some of that money toward the editorial work. It also ties our income to readers' success: we want you to use a platform well, because that builds a lasting relationship.
The affiliate model carries a real risk of corruption. We built our working practices around the firewall because we know the risk: disclosure on every page, partners named on this page, and a willingness to publish negative coverage of partners.
If we ever fall short of that standard, we expect readers to say so. Email info@bellwether.market if you see it happen.
FTC compliance
This disclosure follows the US Federal Trade Commission's guides on the use of endorsements and testimonials in advertising (16 CFR Part 255). The FTC requires material connections between endorsers and advertisers, including affiliate commissions, to be disclosed clearly and conspicuously. We disclose at every affiliate link, and in full on this page.
Contact
Questions about this disclosure, or about a specific piece of coverage: info@bellwether.market
Where to go next
- Are prediction markets legal in the US?: federal and state rules.
- State-by-state legal guides: California, Texas, Florida and more.