Responsible trading

Bellwether is an editorial publication, not a brokerage, a counselor or a therapist. But we cover prediction markets, where people put real money at risk. A publication that introduces you to them has a duty to tell you where to find help if the activity stops being healthy.

This page does that, briefly and without moralizing. If you are here because someone you care about is struggling, the resources are further down and you can go straight to them.

If you or someone you know needs help right now, call 1-800-GAMBLER. The line is free, confidential and open 24/7. Or visit ncpgambling.org.

What we mean by responsible trading

Prediction markets are speculative financial products. You put money on a future outcome. If it resolves your way, you make money. If not, you lose what you staked. The most you can lose on one contract is the price you paid. Across many trades, if you keep depositing, the only limit on your losses is the size of your bank account.

The same is true of stocks, options, crypto, sports betting, casinos and most other speculation. This page exists because prediction-market platforms, like every other venue for speculation, are designed to hold your attention: variable rewards, fast feedback, and a constant stream of news that moves markets. That design suits an informed trader who has set limits. It suits a trader without limits much less well.

Responsible trading means setting your own limits before you need them, and keeping to them.

You can lose everything you put in

This is the most important sentence on this page.

Every dollar you deposit on a prediction-market platform is at risk. Even when the implied probability looks high, say an 85% chance of YES, the 15% chance of the other result is real and happens regularly. A trader who only buys at 85% and loses 15% of those trades is getting exactly what the market priced in. That is how variance works.

So deposit only money you can afford to lose entirely. Not money you would rather not lose: money you would be fine losing. If you cannot afford to lose a given dollar, it does not belong in a prediction-market account.

This is not investment advice

Nothing on Bellwether is investment advice. We cover platforms, fees, regulation and industry news. We do not tell you which trades to make or how large to make them. If you want personal advice, about prediction markets or your wider finances, talk to a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor in your jurisdiction. Some prediction-market traders hire a CPA who understands the section 1256 question, which is a sensible expense once your volume justifies it.

Warning signs

These signs suggest that someone's relationship with trading has become unhealthy. If you recognize yourself, or someone you care about, take it seriously.

You deposit more than you planned, again and again.
You trade with money meant for rent, bills, food or savings.
You lie to family or partners about how much you have deposited or lost.
You feel compelled to trade, and restless, irritable or anxious when you can't.
You chase losses with bigger positions to try to break even.
You think about prediction markets when you are doing other things and don't want to.
You have borrowed money to fund a trading account.
You have tried to stop or cut back and could not.

Any one of these is worth taking seriously. Several together are a stronger signal. Federal law treats prediction markets as financial contracts rather than gambling, though several states dispute that. Either way, speculation can produce the same patterns as gambling, and the same help is available.

Set limits before you need them

These are the practices we would suggest to a friend before a first deposit. They are deliberately conservative, because the time to fit a brake is before you need it.

Deposit cap. Decide in writing the most you will ever deposit. Start with an amount you would be comfortable losing entirely in one bad month. Many platforms let you set a hard deposit limit in account settings. Use it.
Weekly time cap. Decide how many hours a week you will spend on prediction markets, counting reading, analysis, trading and following the news. Treat it like any other budget for spare time.
Monthly stop-loss. Decide in advance how much monthly loss will make you stop for the rest of the month. Keep to it without renegotiating.
Sober trading. Don't trade while intoxicated, just as you wouldn't trade stocks while intoxicated.
No borrowed money. Don't deposit money from credit cards, credit lines or loans. Platforms generally do not accept credit cards, but workarounds exist. Don't use them.
No essential money. Don't trade with money for rent, tuition, medical bills, childcare or retirement.
Sleep on it. If you want to top up an account after a loss, wait twenty-four hours. The urge often passes.

A competent stockbroker or financial advisor would suggest the same practices for any speculative activity. They work if you use them.

Self-exclusion

If you decide to stop trading on a particular platform, Kalshi and Polymarket both honor requests to close an account or exclude yourself for a period.

Kalshi: email support@kalshi.com to request account closure or a self-exclusion period, and state how long the exclusion should last.
Polymarket: email help@polymarket.com to request account closure or a self-exclusion period. Polymarket's US app operates through QCX, a CFTC-designated contract market, and honors the standard self-exclusion practices that apply to such exchanges.
Robinhood Event Contracts: Robinhood's general account controls let you lock access to event contracts. The Robinhood help center shows the current steps.

Many states keep self-exclusion registries for traditional gambling. These do not automatically cover CFTC-regulated event contracts, because the legal category is different. For wider self-exclusion, each platform above accepts direct requests, and the National Council on Problem Gambling lists self-exclusion resources by state.

Where to get help

We recommend these US resources without hesitation.

National Council on Problem Gambling helpline: 1-800-GAMBLER. Free, confidential, 24/7, with text and chat options. ncpgambling.org lists every way to get in touch and each state's affiliate council.
National Council on Problem Gambling website: ncpgambling.org. Self-assessment tools, treatment directories and resources for family members.
Gamblers Anonymous: gamblersanonymous.org. Free peer-support meetings, in person and online, across the United States.
SAMHSA National Helpline: 1-800-662-HELP (4357). A free, confidential 24/7 referral service for mental-health and substance-use problems, which often occur alongside problem gambling.
Your state's problem-gambling council. Most states have an NCPG affiliate. Find yours in the directory on ncpgambling.org.

None of these services will judge you. The helpline staff have heard everything, treat callers with respect, and are there to help, not to shame.

For family and friends

If someone you care about shows the warning signs above, the same resources apply to you. Ncpgambling.org has guidance and support materials for family members, and the 1-800-GAMBLER helpline takes calls from worried relatives as well as from people who trade.

You are not responsible for fixing the situation. You are allowed to ask for help, and help exists.

What Bellwether is and isn't

We are a publication. We write reviews, comparisons and state-by-state legal guides about prediction-market platforms. We earn a commission when readers sign up through some of our links, and we disclose that on every page; see our affiliate disclosure. We do not give trading advice, coach individual users, or judge whether prediction markets suit any particular person. Those decisions are yours, with professional help if you need it.

If the resources on this page help, use them. If they are not what you need, the most reliable place to start is the helpline: 1-800-GAMBLER.

Where to go next

Are prediction markets legal in the US?: the regulatory background.
State-by-state legal guides: California, Texas, Florida and more.