About Bellwether
Bellwether is an independent guide to US prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. We publish reviews, side-by-side comparisons, state-by-state legal guides, tax explainers and live market data, written for people who want a straight answer rather than a sales pitch.
Bellwether is published by Kuutra Oy. Bylines read Bellwether Editorial because pages are maintained by the publication as a whole and updated over time, not written once and left alone.
What we cover
- Platforms: how each US prediction market works, what it costs, where it is available and who it suits.
- Legality and tax: what federal and state rules mean in practice, and how winnings and losses are reported.
- Markets: live odds for the 2026 midterms and other major markets, and what the prices do and do not tell you.
- Industry news: launches, funding and regulation that change what is available to US traders.
How pages are made
- Sources first. Facts about fees, regulation and availability come from primary sources: CFTC filings, platform terms and help centers, state statutes and IRS publications. Pages say when they were last checked.
- Updated, not abandoned. Guides and reviews are revised when rules, fees or offers change, and the date at the top of each page shows the latest update.
- Live data is labelled. Prices come from Polymarket's public API. They are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts and not advice.
- Automated news is labelled and limited. Short market-move news items are drafted by an automated pipeline from Polymarket data and recent news coverage, then filtered by topic and quality rules. They cover US politics, the Federal Reserve and macro, geopolitics and major crypto only.
How Bellwether is funded
Some links earn us a referral commission: KalshiSpy subscriptions and Polymarket sign-ups made through our /go/ links. You pay nothing extra, and commissions never decide which platforms we recommend or how we describe them. The affiliate disclosure lists every partner and how we keep editorial and commercial decisions apart.
Rankings and reviews are not for sale. Advertising and sponsored content, when we run them, are labelled as such and kept separate from editorial coverage; see advertise.
Corrections and contact
If something on Bellwether is wrong or out of date, email info@bellwether.market. We fix verified errors and update the page date.
Prediction markets involve real risk of loss. Nothing on Bellwether is financial, legal or tax advice. If trading stops being fun or affordable, read our responsible trading page.