How We Rate Prediction Markets
Every score on Bellwether comes from the same six criteria, weighted the same way for every platform. A platform that pays us a commission gets no extra points, and a platform that pays us nothing loses none. The affiliate disclosure lists who pays us.
The criteria
| Criterion | Weight | What we look at |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation and safety | 25% | Who regulates the platform (for example a CFTC-designated contract market), how customer funds are held, identity checks, and any enforcement or state-level actions. |
| Fees and costs | 20% | Trading fees, spreads, deposit and withdrawal costs, and any interest paid on idle cash. |
| Liquidity | 20% | Order-book depth and trading volume on the markets most US traders use. |
| Market selection | 15% | Breadth of categories (politics, economics, sports, culture, crypto) and how quickly new markets are listed. |
| Funding and withdrawals | 10% | Supported methods, minimums, and how long deposits and withdrawals take. |
| App and usability | 10% | iOS, Android and web apps, order types, and app-store ratings from users. |
Each criterion is scored from 1 to 5, and the overall score is the weighted average, rounded to one decimal.
Where the information comes from
- The platform's own fee schedules, help-center articles and terms.
- Regulatory filings and public actions by the CFTC and state regulators.
- Public market data, such as order books and volumes published through the platforms' APIs.
- App-store listings and ratings, with the date we read them.
We do not accept payment, free credit or early access in exchange for coverage. Scores describe the platform as a whole, not any promotion.
How often we recheck
We recheck key facts and scores whenever a platform changes its fees, regulatory status or state availability, and at least every 90 days. Each review shows when it was last updated. Welcome offers change often, so always confirm the current terms on the platform before you sign up.
Platforms not yet scored
Newer platforms are reviewed before they are scored. Until a platform has been through all six criteria, its review shows "Not yet scored" rather than a provisional number.
Corrections
If a fact or score on Bellwether is wrong or out of date, email info@bellwether.market. We correct verified errors and update the page date. See also About Bellwether.