Election Signals

The Polymarket contract asking whether the US-Iran ceasefire will hold through the November 2026 midterm elections closed January 18 at

A thin midterm market on Polymarket is now pricing a 65.5 percent chance that Democrats hold both the House and

The Ohio 2026 Senate race repriced five points lower for Republicans in the last 24 hours, settling at 40.5 percent

The implied Republican win probability for Michigan’s 2026 Senate race fell 5.5 percentage points in 24 hours to 34 percent,

A thinly traded Polymarket contract asking whether Democrats will hold both chambers after the 2026 midterms has climbed 6 percentage

A thin prediction market tracking unified Democratic control after the 2026 midterms—meaning both chambers—moved four percentage points higher in the

The Polymarket contract on Democrats holding both chambers after the 2026 midterms stands at 52.5%, entirely flat over 24 hours.

The Polymarket contract on Democratic control of the Senate after the 2026 midterms closed the last 24 hours at 52.5

Polymarket traders now price the Democrats at 39.5% to win Iowa’s 2026 Senate race, up five percentage points in 24

The Polymarket contract on a Republican victory in Ohio’s 2026 Senate race closed today at 48.5 percent implied probability, unchanged