Over $1.16 million in 24-hour volume poured into prediction markets on the National Bank Open women’s tennis match between Alina Korneeva and Coco Gauff, making it the highest-volume event across both Polymarket and Kalshi. Gauff’s implied win probability now sits at 99.55%, while Korneeva has collapsed to just 0.45%, down 23 percentage points in the last day.
The market registered $1,158,270 in volume over the past 24 hours, with Gauff’s contract price climbing from roughly 77% to near certainty. Korneeva, the Russian teenager who upset higher-ranked opponents earlier in the tournament, saw her odds crater as traders priced in Gauff’s dominance. The lopsided pricing reflects heavy one-way flow: bettors are overwhelmingly backing the American star at nearly any price.
The smart-money positioning signals that traders view this match as all but decided. When a favorite crosses the 99% threshold on high volume, it typically means the market has absorbed new information, such as form, head-to-head history, or surface advantage, and converged on a consensus. For Gauff, ranked significantly higher and playing on a hard court where she excels, the market is pricing in minimal upset risk.
The National Bank Open continues through the weekend, with Gauff looking to add another title to her 2026 campaign. Traders will watch whether the remaining matches generate similar volume or if this was an isolated spike driven by sharp disagreement that has since resolved. The Korneeva contract, now trading at less than half a cent on the dollar, offers no realistic edge unless a withdrawal or injury surfaces before first serve.
When $1.16 million moves in 24 hours and the favorite jumps 23 points, the message is clear: the smart money has spoken, and it sees no path for the underdog.