The largest single market by 24-hour volume on Polymarket is now betting just 16.5% that the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law in 2026, down 6 percentage points in the past day as nearly $1 million in bets churned through the contract.
Volume hit $985,628 over the last 24 hours, with the No outcome (the bill does not become law) priced at 83.5%. The 6-point drop suggests traders are unwinding earlier optimism or hedging against legislative gridlock as the calendar ticks forward. The Clarity Act, a crypto-focused bill aimed at establishing regulatory certainty for digital assets, has been a bellwether for how traders view the likelihood of meaningful legislative action this session.
The smart-money positioning is clear: bettors are pricing in a four-in-five chance the bill stalls before reaching the President’s desk. Heavy two-sided flow at this volume often reflects hedging by informed participants or a repricing after new political intelligence. With odds now tilted heavily toward No, the market is signaling skepticism that Congress can clear the procedural and political hurdles in the remaining months of 2026.
Key context: the Clarity Act has been in committee since introduction, and passage would require buy-in from both chambers plus a presidential signature. Traders will watch for any committee votes, floor schedules, or public statements from leadership that could shift the probability. A sudden uptick in Yes volume or a sharp rebound in odds would suggest new legislative momentum; continued drift lower would cement the current consensus.
Bottom line: the smart money is fading the Clarity Act for 2026, and the volume backing that view is the heaviest on the board today.